Promo Predictions 2009: Ad Dollars Realign
Over the past few years ad dollars have been moving online...and into promotional products and other non-traditional media. So far, companies have been able to gradually boost their spending online and on promotions without abandoning traditional media entirely, but 2009 will be different. With so many companies strapped for cash budgets will be slashed and there will be some big losers, probably TV, radio and print, while more cost effective, flexible and targeted outlets, like search marketing and guerrilla marketing will receive a bigger share of the (smaller) pie than ever.
Posted by mark at 5:22 PM. Permalink: Promo Predictions 2009: Ad Dollars Realign
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Promo Predictions 2009: Best of Both Worlds
My first prediction for the coming year is a combination of two obvious trends. First, low cost promos will be popular as companies and organizations try to make the most with limited budgets. Second, eco-friendly promos are going to be desirable...if people can afford them. Which brings me to my prediction: recycled products are going to do very well, particularly items like non-woven bags which are actually less expensive than nylon or cotton. Other winners will be recycled paper products and recycled plastic products, which are more eco-friendly than promos made from virgin materials, but can be priced competitively. Other eco-friendly options like organic cottons may be a tougher sell. However, if some of the recent demand for organic cotton dies down, that may also lower prices there a bit, too.
Posted by mark at 7:16 AM. Permalink: Promo Predictions 2009: Best of Both Worlds
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Disposable Bag Backlash
Paper or plastic may be a question of the past. And that would be good. With oil prices and carbon dioxide levels at all-time highs, there's no time like the present to address some of our more wasteful consumer practices. First up: disposable bags (although bottled water isn't too far behind). The future of shopping may be a lot like what you see in Dublin, where they passed a law in 2002 that places a 33-cent tax on disposable bags. Within weeks, plastic bag use dropped 94% replaced largely by the reusable grocery bags that are getting more common in the US every day.
Posted by mark at 10:08 AM. Permalink: Disposable Bag Backlash
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Predictions 2008: Promoting During a Recession?
While we can't yet agree about whether we're in, heading into, or not facing a recession, there is consensus that the US economy is slowing down as we head into 2008. (Due to the delay in compiling data, recent recessions haven't been officially acknowledged until they were over or almost over.) The Advertising Lab recently did a nice post about advertising during a recession, including the useful graph below that charts sales growth for companies that did or did not cut advertising during tough times. Not surprisingly, companies that kept advertising (and presumably tightened their belts in other areas) did much better in the long term. In 2008, I think the same will be true of companies and their promo budgets. Companies that skimp on their trade show promos and direct mails this year may save a little cash now, but they'll be paying a steep price in the future as their more savvy competitors steal market share and brand awareness.
Posted by mark at 10:17 AM. Permalink: Predictions 2008: Promoting During a Recession?
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Predictions 2008: More 4-Color
| Predicting the further expansion of full color promotional products is almost an annual tradition for me, but it's a prediciton that comes true every year. This year I've visited factories experimenting with an implementing advanced 4-color process digital printing on bags, plastics, mugs, clothing and a host of other products, and the trend is going to continue. Examples include the high-definition napkins shown here and some amazing full-color plastic memorabilia cups that just came on the market this year. |  |
Posted by mark at 10:40 AM. Permalink: Predictions 2008: More 4-Color
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Predictions 2008: Cause of the Year?
Raising awareness about diseases - to educate those at risk and raise funds to fight them - is one of the most rewarding parts of working in the promotional products industry. Over the past few years we've seen a number of big trends in the industry, from a focus on breast cancer awareness products to the silicone bracelets popularized by Lance Armstrong. Currently (PRODUCT) RED, dedicated to providing anti-retroviral drugs to AIDS sufferers in the developing world, is probably the highest-visibility awareness program. Along the way we've seen plenty of hits, a few misses (the Christopher Reeve foundation dog tags didn't really take off).
We've also able to see trends as measured in sales. Predictions for 2008? Breast cancer awareness products have already peaked. In fact, they probably peaked in 2006. Likewise for silicone bracelets. This year awareness promotion will depend on a new breakout product as well as a new cause that really captures a broad audience.
Posted by mark at 6:21 PM. Permalink: Predictions 2008: Cause of the Year?
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Predictions 2008: Campaigns Boost USA/Union Made Products
Sure, it's kind of a no-brainer, but this election year will mean big sales for made in the USA products as well as union made promos. Of course, this is somewhat true every election year, but with a weakened economy, China perceived as a growing threat, and our debacles in the middle east, this election is bound to focus inward on domestic issues like jobs, especially manufacturing jobs that we've lost. In this respect, promotional products are really a bright spot because the need for customization and short turn-around times has actually kept a lot of imprinting and promotional manufacturing jobs in the US to satisfy the needs of last-minute marketers.
Posted by mark at 11:15 AM. Permalink: Predictions 2008: Campaigns Boost USA/Union Made Products
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Predictions 2008: Focus on Health
Whether you call them love handles or an obesity epidemic, we're in bad shape and getting worse. Combine our general poor health with an aging population of baby boomers and a lot of election year talk about healthcare plans and we're in for a lot of fitness and health oriented promotion in 2008.
Product-wise, old standbys like promotional pedometers and logo sports bottles will be popular, but also be on the lookout for new items like computerized jump ropes that count your jumps and calories burned and arm bands to hold your iPod while you exercise.
Posted by mark at 7:01 AM. Permalink: Predictions 2008: Focus on Health
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Predictions 2008: Web 2.0 Goes Offline
I'm not saying that web 2.0 sites are going dark in 2008, but that people are going to apply these principles offline as well as online. After all, social networking, word of mouth, customer reviews and communities all existed before the web, and the offline world still exists even if it gets ignored from time to time. Without resorting to meaningless names like web 3.0, I will say that lots of the innovation that has changed the way we interact with the web is headed offline in one way or another. Smart phones are blurring the line between web and other modes of communication, technology-enabled brick and mortar stores are going to blur the line between shopping online and off, and marketers will realize that community-building around their brands is as valuable offline as it is online.
What does this have to do with promotional products? There's gonna be lots of stuff to give away in the real world: in stores, at events and via direct mail, and smart marketers are going to leverage their online efforts offline and vice versa.
Posted by mark at 11:45 AM. Permalink: Predictions 2008: Web 2.0 Goes Offline
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Predictions 2008: Look to the Music Industry
| Necessity is the mother of invention, and in 2008 no one needs invention as much as the music industry. Luckily, there are lots of creative people in the music industry and I think they're going to figure out some innovative ways to breath life into their failing business model. I'm not sure what form the innovation will take, but something like this innovative cd packaging (everything was made as real 3D models then photographed) is headed the right way. (Other signs of life: the recording artist as action figure, independent artists taking merch up a notch and releasing albums on USB drive.) |  |
Posted by mark at 7:32 AM. Permalink: Predictions 2008: Look to the Music Industry
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Predictions 2008: Price Pressure
There will be three big factors influencing pricing in 2008 and all of them are likely to increase prices. The increase in the cost of oil is going to drive manufacturing and transportation costs up and if those increases are sustained as they have been in 2007, prices will have to follow. The falling value of the US dollar will also have an impact on prices, particularly if China loosens the yuan's peg against the dollar. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, starting in January of 2008 China has promised to eliminate export subsidies on many of their manufactured good which currently reduce prices by 8-14% on many products.
The full effect of these factors won't be seen in pricing here until 2009, but many prices are headed up starting in the new year, and any mid-year product launches will definitely reflect these increased costs.
Posted by mark at 7:18 AM. Permalink: Predictions 2008: Price Pressure
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Predictions 2008: Saftey Concerns
 | Rising concerns over product safety were one of the top stories of 2007, and unfortunately, they're not going away in 2008. With the election and the Olympics in 2008, China will be big news as a trading partner, a rival on the world stage, and a source of potentially unsafe products. The promotional products industry won't be in the spotlight as much as consumer goods companies, but it will be a concern to buyers. |
Posted by mark at 3:24 PM. Permalink: Predictions 2008: Saftey Concerns
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Predictions 2008: The Year of Eco-friendly?
With 2007 coming to a close, we're going to take a look at promo trends for 2008 over the course of several posts. What better place to start than the rise of eco-friendly promos?
Eco-friendly in 2008: Targeting the Mainstream, Hits and Misses
In 2007 there was a lot of industry buzz around eco-friendly promo products, and there were finally enough products in the industry for us to create a section of our site for them. In 2008, product selection looks to be several times as large, with almost every major producer introducing some eco-friendly items. While we're happy to create, promote and talk-up eco-friendly products, the real question is: will they sell?
My prediction: yes, a little. The main obstacle is price, and in 2008 many marketers will want eco-friendly products for their promotions, but only a fraction will have the budget to pay a premium for them. The winners will be products that are highly-visible eco-friendly products (think earth tones and kraft paper) which are reasonably priced. Organic cottons and recycled fabrics that make products 2-3 times as expensive as their non-eco counterparts are going to see only modest sales, at least in 2008.
Two surprise winners will be eco-friendly items that aren't eco-friendly: inexpensive non-woven totes and polycarb water bottles will be promoted as alternatives to disposable bags and bottled water. Since they're reusable alternatives to disposable products, they do help the environment without being organic/recycled/biodegradable themselves.
Posted by mark at 10:49 AM. Permalink: Predictions 2008: The Year of Eco-friendly?
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Apes: Advertising's Next Target Audience?
We've been communicating with apes since Koko learned sign language. Since we share most of our DNA, it isn't a huge surprise that they can "talk" to us. Recently scientists have been communicating with apes using a touchscreen that contains 350 lexigrams (symbols, kinda like hieroglyphics). They've found that apes can consistently select the symbol that responds to a spoken word or other stimulus, including recognizing brands, like M&Ms. (via The Adverlab)
Posted by mark at 2:21 PM. Permalink: Apes: Advertising's Next Target Audience?
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Umbrella of the Future: Video Umbrella
Tired of the same old promotional umbrellas? Sure, they may keep you dry on the golf course or walking to work, but perhaps you find them boring because they don't show video, or have built in cameras or GPS. Luckily, sophisticated new umbrellas designed with photo sharing and 3-D navigation in mind are finally becoming a reality. Which means umbrellas that show commercials or other ads are coming soon. (via The Adverlab)
Posted by mark at 10:32 AM. Permalink: Umbrella of the Future: Video Umbrella
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Future of Promos: Make Your Own?
Previously I've discussed the future impact of 3-D printing on the promotional products industry, albeit in jest. It seems however, that the future may be nearer than we think. The New York Times just published an article about recent advances that promise to make 3-D printing more affordable. In addition to decreased cost, it seems the machines are getting smaller. Who knows, someday we may be selling the plans for promotional rubber ducks, but not the real thing. Of course, if you need a whole bunch of them, desktop prototyping probably isn't the way to go.
Posted by mark at 9:06 AM. Permalink: Future of Promos: Make Your Own?
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The Unbearable Lightness of Apparel
The future of clothing is definitely about to get a lot brighter, and I'm not just talking about lighted message vests for guys anymore. A variety of new technologies are bringing us ever closer to the day when luminescent advertising will be possible on t-shirts and other promotional apparel.
Posted by mark at 4:56 PM. Permalink: The Unbearable Lightness of Apparel
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The Future of Promotional Apparel
| Soon, instead of regular promotional apparel we will have light-up jackets that display messages. This technology is called Lumalive and comes from Philips, and uses flexible arrays of LED lights that can be woven into fabrics. |  |
Posted by mark at 1:28 PM. Permalink: The Future of Promotional Apparel
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I Saw the Future and It's All Coming True
Remember, way back at the end of December, when I predicted USB products would become fun in 2006? Well, if you didn't believe me then, look what we just found in a magazine. Incidentally, your lucky lotto numbers are: 4 8 15 16 23 and 42.
Posted by mark at 10:29 AM. Permalink: I Saw the Future and It's All Coming True
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Predictions 2006: Fun with USB, Part 2
I believe I mentioned something about USB getting fun this year. Apparently, in Japan it already is. In the meantime, I guess us folks in the US will have to get creative. (via Popgadget)
Posted by mark at 3:32 PM. Permalink: Predictions 2006: Fun with USB, Part 2
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Predictions 2006: Promos Get More Interactive
| I guess this is kind of an obvious prediction, but I think promotional products will become increasingly interactive in the coming year. The invite pictured actually appears blank, but when the recipient wets the paper, the message appears, then disappears. Promotional products are basically interactive by definition (they're things people use or play with), but I think the interaction will become more sophisticated, particularly the interaction with the brand and the message. Like how a Message Pen is versus a regular pen, or a Chalkboard Mug versus a regular mug. And it's a good thing, because interaction is cool. |
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Posted by mark at 3:23 PM. Permalink: Predictions 2006: Promos Get More Interactive
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Predictions 2060: Promotional Products Industry Disappears
Okay, this prediction is a little further out there, but eventually, we'll all have 3D printers and we'll be able to make our own stuff whenever we need it and have no need for promotional products. Right now, these machines expensive (about $25,000) and I think they're mostly used to make prototypes of stuff for manufacturing (they call it "rapid prototyping," but someday there will be one in every garage. If memory serves, there are a couple kinds of these, one that adds thin layers of material to build up an object and one that starts with a block of material and lasers it away in layers to create an object. If you're wondering which one I'd want for my birthday, I would be totally stoked to get either. (via MIT Advertising Lab's blog, where they blind you, Thomas Dolby-style, with advertising.)
Posted by mark at 9:50 AM. Permalink: Predictions 2060: Promotional Products Industry Disappears
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Predictions 2006: USB Gets Fun
| 2005 was the year USB promotional products got big, and 2006 is going to be the year they get fun. With widespread adoption of USB 2.0, which transmits more power through the USB connection, USB products broke out of the memory stick box and started to get more interesting. This year most of the growth was in business and business travel related areas, such as this USB cell phone charger, but did extend to some quirkier products, like the USB cup warmer and some stylish items like these Vase-shaped USB speakers. I think the duck-shaped USB vaccum we featured here a few weeks ago is a harbinger of what's to come. More gadgets with more style, more color, and a lot more fun. I think by the end of the year we may even see USB items that are fuzzy, pastel, or both! |
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Posted by mark at 5:40 PM. Permalink: Predictions 2006: USB Gets Fun
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Predictions 2006: Electronic Paper
Okay, so maybe this won't happen in 2006, but within the next three years, electronic paper technology, essentially inexpensive, paper-thin, flat screen displays, will make its way into consumer products and promotional items. The research has been going on for decades, but now many different manufacturers are making large strides towards making this technology affordable. When this technology does roll out on a large scale, it's going to have a huge impact on promotional products, replacing traditional pad printing and screen printing methods in many situations. (via MIT Advertising Lab)
Posted by mark at 9:42 PM. Permalink: Predictions 2006: Electronic Paper
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Predictions 2006: Organic Growth
This time of year, everyone's making predictions about 2006, and we've got some of our own about promotional products and the promo industry. First off, we predict that organic products hit the big time this year as more companies and organizations decide to showcase their community and environmental values with their promotional products. Organic promotional food and wine will lead the way, but organic cotton apparel will make an impact, too. Also, we'll see biodegradable plastic alternatives for many disposable products and promotional packaging. For a preview of what's to come, check out this biodegradable highlighter.
Posted by mark at 5:03 PM. Permalink: Predictions 2006: Organic Growth
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